🔗 Share this article

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.